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Your Fair Share

In 2008, in the heat of the presidential race, the Republican Party released it's projections for the Federal government deficit over the life of an 8 year Obama term. It assumed health care, cap and trade and immigration reform would be passed. It was their attempt to show what these programs would mean to every man woman and child in the United States. This projection was derided as fear mongering and evidence that the Republican Party would tell any lie to get elected. It's been approximately 2 years since that projection was made and dismissed by the liberal media. Time to take a look at how we're doing....

I'm going to show you two pictures. The first is a chart with three projections. Two of them will not change so we can evaluate them over time against the third.

The rear projection, closest to the back wall is the 2008 Republican party deficit projection.
The center projection is the 2009 CBO Deficit Projection. These projections used assumptions from the new Obama Administration, the same assumptions they used in the campaign.
The front projection is the 2010 CBO Deficit Projection It also uses assumptions from the Obama Administration, but reality filters in as time passes.

BudgetDeficitChart_2010.jpg

So, how are we doing?

2009 has come and gone. The actual deficit and the Republican projections were in a dead heat. The Obama campaign projection came up $200 billion short.

2010 is half over. It looks like the Republicans came up short $200 billion this time, the Obama projection was only a $100 billion to low. So far, the Republican projections have been dead on or too optimistic.

2011 it looks like both parties missed the boat. The Republicans thought the economy would be in a full swing recovery at this point, apparently the CBO disagrees. They predict the deficit reducing by $50 billion, but at this scale $50 billion is barely a blip. Remember, these are Obama's numbers, not the Republicans.

2012 - 2016  Since the CBO uses assumptions fed to it by the administration the remaining years follow the same trend as the original Obama projections, except that they are 50% larger than the Obama projections. As time passes and the numbers the CBO receives have more realistic assumptions the projections are rising dramatically. The trend tends to favor the Republican projection. This is not a good thing. Next year will be very telling, if the 2011 projections raise the 2012 prediction as dramatically as the 2010 raised the 2011 prediction, well, do the math. The most pessimistic Republican projections might still be to low.

Doing Your Part

Here is the second chart. It has the data used to make the above chart as well as an attempt to show you the difference to you, to your fair share of this burden.

BudgetDeficitData_2010.jpg

Some Conclusions

- The original Obama projections said his programs were going to raise the deficit by $77,000 per household. The Republicans nearly doubled that, saying this would cost $122,000 per household. Current projections have raised Obama's projections have made up 60% of the difference, bringing the total up to $107,000 per household. That was in the first year.

- These numbers DO NOT include the cost of the additional taxes that will be enacted due to health care legislation, possible cap & trade costs and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

- Obama is counting on the cap & trade raising $800 billion of revenue in his budget projections. If it should fail to pass his overall predictions will need to be raised by that amount.

- The per household numbers assume everyone pays. In a zero income or lower income bracket? Someone will need to pay more to make up for you. Don't expect them to be happy about it.

The Future

There is one thing all three projections agree on. The 2017-2020 budget deficits will skyrocket over the 2016 deficit. The only question is how much. The 2010 CBO projection used here actually runs out to 2020 and estimates that it will balloon to twice the 2016 level or more. That's $2 trillion per year and it's still accelerating. 2021 would be higher, no idea if or when it would slow down. If you're someone who believes you can run trillion dollar deficits forever, let's hope you're right. Most of us think spending more than you make by 50% per year for an extended time is going to result in a crash. A big one, like nothing we've ever seen here in the USA. The kind we read about and shake our heads over, hyper-inflation, more people unemployed than employed and ripe for a finanial takeover and a strong hand to take the wheel. Scary thoughts.

Disagree?

Let me know your facts. Go back to the home page, there is a little mail icon st the top, feel free to use it. I'm not going to argue philosophy, only if you want to challenge my facts or analysis.

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