Your Fair Share
In 2008, in the heat of the presidential race, the Republican Party
released it's projections for the Federal government deficit over the
life of an 8 year Obama term. It assumed health care, cap and trade and
immigration reform would be passed. It was their attempt to show what
these programs would mean to every man woman and child in the United
States. This projection was derided as fear mongering and evidence that
the Republican Party would tell any lie to get elected. It's been
approximately 2 years since that projection was made and dismissed by
the liberal media. Time to take a look at how we're doing....
I'm going to show you two pictures. The first is a chart with three
projections. Two of them will not change so we can evaluate them over
time against the third.
The rear projection, closest to the back wall is the 2008 Republican
party deficit projection.
The center projection is the 2009 CBO Deficit Projection. These
projections used assumptions from the new Obama Administration, the
same assumptions they used in the campaign.
The front projection is the 2010 CBO Deficit Projection It also uses
assumptions from the Obama Administration, but reality filters in as
So, how are we doing?
2009 has come and gone. The actual deficit and the Republican
projections were in a dead heat. The Obama campaign projection came up
$200 billion short.
2010 is half over. It looks like the Republicans came up short $200
billion this time, the Obama projection was only a $100 billion to low.
So far, the Republican projections have been dead on or too optimistic.
2011 it looks like both parties missed the boat. The Republicans
thought the economy would be in a full swing recovery at this point,
apparently the CBO disagrees. They predict the deficit reducing by $50
billion, but at this scale $50 billion is barely a blip. Remember,
these are Obama's numbers, not the Republicans.
2012 - 2016 Since the CBO uses assumptions fed to it by the
administration the remaining years follow the same trend as the
original Obama projections, except that they are 50% larger than the
Obama projections. As time passes and the numbers the CBO receives have
more realistic assumptions the projections are rising dramatically. The
trend tends to favor the Republican projection. This is not a good
thing. Next year will be very telling, if the 2011 projections raise
the 2012 prediction as dramatically as the 2010 raised the 2011
prediction, well, do the math. The most pessimistic Republican
projections might still be to low.
Doing Your Part
Here is the second chart. It has the data used to make the above chart
as well as an attempt to show you the difference to you, to your fair
share of this burden.
- The original Obama projections said
his programs were going to raise the deficit by $77,000 per household.
The Republicans nearly doubled that, saying this would cost $122,000
per household. Current projections have raised Obama's projections have
made up 60% of the difference, bringing the total up to $107,000 per
household. That was in the first year.
- These numbers DO NOT include the cost of the additional taxes that
will be enacted due to health care legislation, possible cap &
trade costs and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.
- Obama is counting on the cap & trade raising $800 billion of
revenue in his budget projections. If it should fail to pass his
overall predictions will need to be raised by that amount.
- The per household numbers assume everyone pays. In a zero income or
lower income bracket? Someone will need to pay more to make up for you.
Don't expect them to be happy about it.
There is one thing all three
projections agree on. The 2017-2020 budget deficits will skyrocket over
the 2016 deficit. The only question is how much. The 2010 CBO
projection used here actually runs out to 2020 and estimates that it
will balloon to twice the 2016 level or more. That's $2 trillion per
year and it's still accelerating. 2021 would be higher, no idea if or
when it would slow down. If you're someone who believes you can run
trillion dollar deficits forever, let's hope you're right. Most of us
think spending more than you make by 50% per year for an extended time
is going to result in a crash. A big one, like nothing we've ever seen
here in the USA. The kind we read about and shake our heads over,
hyper-inflation, more people unemployed than employed and ripe for a
finanial takeover and a strong hand to take the wheel. Scary thoughts.
Return to Home Page
Let me know your facts. Go back to the home page, there is a
little mail icon st the top, feel free to use it. I'm not going to
argue philosophy, only if you want to challenge my facts or analysis.